Latest Publications

What Options do You Have For Obtaining Future Credit If Bankruptcy, Foreclosure, Short Sale etc?

This is a great article from California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). Please note that Michael Simpson is not an attorney or CPA and is sharing this information on behalf of C.A.R.

This information should not be relied on but is believed to be accurate as of today. Any parties should always seek legal and tax advice when making decisions of this magnitude.

Michael Simpson


One of the concerns a consumer has after experiencing a bankruptcy, foreclosure, or short sale (referred to as a “preforeclosure sale” by Fannie Mae when the owner is in default) is the ability to obtain credit to purchase another home.  Fannie Mae has updated its credit guidelines in the FNMA Selling Guide, June 30, 2010. [ Note: This is a 1,234 page PDF document that takes a long time to download.]  This legal article summarizes those guidelines in Part I.  In addition, since lenders use FICO scores in order to determine the creditworthiness of a borrower, this article covers the impact of a bankruptcy, foreclosure or short sale on FICO scores in Part II.

I.  Fannie Mae Credit Guidelines

A.  Credit after Foreclosure

Q 1.  How long is the time period after a foreclosure before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a home?

A Seven years from the date the foreclosure sale was completed as reported on the credit report or other foreclosure documents provided by the borrower.  See Question 2 below for exceptions.

(Source: FNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 426  )

Q 2.  Does a shorter time period apply if the borrower has “extenuating circumstances” that led to the foreclosure?

A Yes. The borrower may again be eligible for a loan three years from the date the foreclosure sale was completed if the borrower has “extenutating circumstances” as defined in Question 3.

Additional requirements that apply after 3 years and up to 7 years following the completion date are as follows:

  • The purchase must be of a principal residence.  Purchase of a second home or investment property is not permitted until the seven-year waiting period has elapsed.
  • The consumer is limited to a maximum loan to value ratio of 90 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf ) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.
  • Limited cash-out refinances are permitted for all occupancy types. (Cash-out refinances are not permitted until a seven-year waiting period has elapsed.)

(Source: FNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 426-7 .)

Q 3.  What are”extenuating circumstances”?

A Fannie Mae describes “extenuating circumstances” as follows:

Extenuating circumstances are nonrecurring events that are beyond the borrower’s control that result in a sudden, significant, and prolonged reduction in income or a catastrophic increase in financial obligations.

If a borrower claims that derogatory information is the result of extenuating circumstances, the lender must substantiate the borrower’s claim.  Examples of documentation that can be used to support extenuating circumstances include documents that confirm the event (such as a copy of a divorce decree, medical bills, notice of job layoff, job severance papers, etc.) and documents that illustrate factors that contributed to the borrower’s inability to resolve the problems that resulted from the event (such as a copy of insurance papers or claim settlements, listing agreements, lease agreements, tax returns (e.g., covering the periods prior to, during, and after a loss of employment).

The lender must obtain a letter from the borrower explaining the relevance of the documentation.  The letter must support the claims of extenuating circumstances, confirm the nature of the event that led to the bankruptcy or foreclosure-related action, and illustrate the borrower had no reasonable options other than to default on his or her financial obligations.

(Source: FNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10, 6-30-10 at 429 .)

Q 4.  What are the requirements to re-establish a credit history after a foreclosure?

A After a foreclosure, a credit history must meet the following requirements to be considered re-established:

• The elapsed time and the related requirements are met (as discussed in this article).

• The loan receives a recommendation from Desktop Underwriter (an automated underwriting system) that is acceptable for delivery to Fannie Mae.  If manually underwritten, then the loan must meet the minimum credit score requirements based on the parameters of the loan and the established eligibility requirements.

• The borrower has traditional credit as outlined in the Selling Guide, B3-5.3, Traditional Credit History (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/sg/pdf/sel043010.pdf).  Nontraditional credit or “thin files” are not acceptable. A “thin file” exists where the borrower does not have a sufficient number of credit references to develop a traditional credit report.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10, 6-30-10 at 428).

B.  Credit after Deed-in-Lieu (DIL) of Foreclosure

Q 5.  How long is the time period after a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a property?

A After two years from the date the deed in lieu was executed, but the consumer is limited to a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

After four years, the consumer is limited to a maximum loan to value ratio of 90 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

After seven years, the consumer is limited to the loan-to-value ratios set forth in the Eligibility Matrix. (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf)

(Source:   FNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10, 6-30-10 at 427.)

Q 6.  Does a shorter time period apply if the borrower has “extenuating circumstances” that led to the deed-in-lieu of foreclosure?

A Yes.  Two years from the date the deed-in-lieu was executed, but the consumer is limited to a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 90 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10, 6-30-10 at 427.)

See Question 3 for the definition of “extenuating circumstances.”

Q 7.  Are deed-in-lieu of foreclosure actions identified on a credit report?

A A deed-in-lieu of foreclosure may be reported by a remarks code indicating a deed-in-lieu.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08. )

Q 8.  What are the requirements to re-establish a credit history after a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure?

A After a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, a credit history must meet the following requirements to be considered re-established:

• The elapsed time and the related requirements are met (as discussed in this article).

• The loan receives a recommendation from Desktop Underwriter (an automated underwriting system) that is acceptable for delivery to Fannie Mae.  If manually underwritten, then the loan must meet the minimum credit score requirements based on the parameters of the loan and the established eligibility requirements.

• The borrower has traditional credit as outlined in the Selling Guide, B3-5.3, Traditional Credit History (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/sg/pdf/sel043010.pdf).  Nontraditional credit or “thin files” are not acceptable. A “thin file” exists where the borrower does not have a sufficient number of credit references to develop a traditional credit report.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 428).

C. Credit after a Short Sale (Preforeclosure Sale)

Q 9.  How long is the time period after a ” preforeclosure sale“ before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a property?

A After two years from the date the preforeclosure sale was completed, but the consumer is limited to a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

After four years, the consumer is limited to a maximum loan to value ratio of 90 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

After seven years, the consumer is limited to the loan-to-value ratios set forth in the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf).

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10, 6-30-10 at 427.)

Q 10.  What is a “preforeclosure sale” mentioned in Question 9 and is that the same as a short sale?

A “A preforeclosure sale involves the sale of the property by the borrower to a third party for less than the amount owed to satify the delinquent mortgage, as agreed to by the lender, investor, and mortgage insurer”

Although the terms preforeclosure sale and short sale have been used interchangeably, there is a significant difference for purposes of obtaining credit.  For Fannie Mae purposes, a preforeclosure assumes that the borrower has been delinquent in paying his or her mortgage and the lender agrees to accept a lesser amount to avoid the time and expense of a foreclousre action.  A short-sale, however, can also refer to situations in which the lender of the mortgage agrees to a payoff of a lesser amount than is actually owed, even on a current mortgage, to facilitate the sale of the property to a third party.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08. )

Q 11.  Does a shorter time period apply if the borrower has “extenuating circumstances” that led to the preforeclosure (short) sale?

A Yes.  Two years from the date the preforeclosure sale was completed, but the consumer is limited to a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 90 percent.  If the Eligibility Matrix (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf) sets forth a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio for the transaction at hand, then the consumer is limited to the lower maximum loan-to-value ratio.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 427 .)

Q 12.  If a borrower sold his or her property as a short sale but was never delinquent on that mortgage and is now attempting to purchase a new primary residence, will Fannie Mae purchase the loan?

A The loan will be eligible for delivery to Fannie Mae provided that the borrower’s previous mortgage history complies with Fannie Mae’s excessive prior mortgage delinquency policy–that is the borrower does not have one or more 60-, 90-, 120-, or 150-day delinquencies reported within the 12 months prior to the credit report date–and the borrower has not entered into any agreement with the short sale lender to repay any amounts associated with the short sale, including a deficiency judgment.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08 ; FNMA Selling Guide, Part X, Chapter 3, Section 302.09. .)

Q 13.  Are preforeclosure sales (short sales) identified on a credit report?

A Preforeclosure sales may be reported as “paid in full” with a “settled for less than owed” remarks code, and the mortgage tradeline would indicate any recent delinquency.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08. )

D.  Credit after a Bankruptcy

Q 14.  How long is the time period after a  Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a property?

A Four years from the discharge or dismissal date of the bankruptcy action.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 425 .)

Q 15.  How long is the time period after a  Chapter 13 bankruptcy before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a property?

A Two years from the discharge date and four years from the dismissal date. The shorter waiting period based on the discharge date recognizes that borrowers have already met a portion of the waiting period within the time needed for the successful completion of a Chapter 13 plan and subsequent discharge.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 425 .)

Q 16.  Does a shorter time period apply if the borrower has “extenuating circumstances” that led to the bankruptcy (all actions)?

A Yes.  Two years from the discharge or dismissal; however, no exceptions are permitted to the 2-year time period after a Chapter 13 discharge.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 425-6 .)

See Question 3 for the definition of “extenuating circumstances.”

Q 17.  How long is the time period after multiple bankruptcy filings before a consumer can be eligible to obtain credit to purchase a property?

A Five years from the most recent dismissal or discharge date for borrowers with more than one bankruptcy filing within the past 7 years.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 426 .)

Q 18.  What are “multiple bankruptcy filings”?

A This means an individual borrower has filed for bankruptcy more than one time.  Two or more borrowers with individual bankruptcies are not cumulative, and do not constitute multiple bankruptcies. For example, if the borrower has one bankruptcy and the co-borrower has one bankruptcy, this is not considered a multiple bankruptcy.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 426 .)

Q 19.  Does a shorter time period apply if the borrower has “extenuating circumstances” that led to the multiple bankruptcies?

A Yes.  Three years from the most recent discharge or dismissal date.  The most recent bankruptcy filing must have been the result of extenuating circumstances.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 426 .)

See Question 3 for the definition of “extenuating circumstances.”

Q 20.  What is the difference between a Chapter 13 bankruptcy and a Chapter 7 bankruptcy?

A Chapter 13 permits a borrower with a regular income to propose a plan to repay some or all of his or her obligations over a period of up to five years.  A borrower who files a Chapter 7 is permitted to retain exempt assets and receive a discharge of the borrower’s debts.  Chapter 7 is a relatively quick liquidation process that is generally completed within 120 days.  Chapter 7 cases are rarely dismissed.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08. )

Q 21.  What is the difference between a Chapter 13 dismissal and a Chapter 13 discharge?

A A borrower who files a Chapter 13 can dismiss the case at any time (voluntary dismissal) or the case may be dismissed by the court based on the borrower’s failure to comply with the requirements of the Bankruptcy Code or to make the required payments. If the borrower who files a Chapter 13 case makes all of the payments required by the plan, the borrower receives a discharge at the end of the plan.  A borrower who doesn’t make all the payment required by the plan may still receive a discharge if the court finds, among other things, that the borrower made a certain amount of the payments and the borrower’s failure to make all of the payments was due to circumstances beyond the borrower’s control.

(Source: FNMA Announcement 08-16 Q&A, 8-13-08. )

Q 22.  What are the requirements to re-establish a credit history?

A After a bankruptcy, a credit history must meet the following requirements to be considered re-established:

• The elapsed time and the related requirements are met (as discussed in this article).

• The loan receives a recommendation from Desktop Underwriter (an automated underwriting system) that is acceptable for delivery to Fannie Mae.  If manually underwritten, then the loan must meet the minimum credit score requirements based on the parameters of the loan and the established eligibility requirements.

• The borrower has traditional credit as outlined in the Selling Guide, B3-5.3, Traditional Credit History (https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/sg/pdf/sel043010.pdf).  Nontraditional credit or “thin files” are not acceptable. A “thin file” exists where the borrower does not have a sufficient number of credit references to develop a traditional credit report.

(SourceFNMA Selling Guide, 6-30-10 at 428).

II.  Bankruptcy, Foreclosure, and Short Sale and the Impact on a FICO ®Score

Q 23.  What is a FICO® Score?

A A FICO® score is a number representing the creditworthiness of a  person or the likelihood that person will pay his or her debts. The three credit reporting agencies, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, collect data about consumers in order to compile credit reports. The credit agencies use FICO® software to generate FICO® scores, which are then sold to lenders. Actually FICO® is just one of the several credit scoring systems available. The Fair Isaac Corporation (known as FICO®) created the first credit scoring system in 1958.  Others are NextGen, VantageScore, and the CE Score.  They all evaluate the creditworthiness of a borrower.  However, FICO appears to be the most-used credit scoring system.  A FICO® score is between 300 and 850.  The higher the better the credit.

Each consumer has three credit scores at any given time for any given scoring model because the three credit agencies have their own databases, gather reports from different creditors, and receive information from creditors at different times.

Q 24.  What factors go into determining a FICO® score?

A Credit scores are designed to measure the risk of default by taking into account various factors in a person’s financial history. Although the exact formulas for calculating credit scores are closely-guarded secrets, FICO® has disclosed the following components and the approximate weighted contribution of each:

35% — Payment History – Late payments on bills, such as a mortgage, credit card or automobile loan, can cause a consumer’s FICO® score to drop. Paying bills as agreed over time will improve a consumer’s FICO® score.

30% — Credit Utilization – The ratio of current revolving debt (such as credit card balances) to the total available revolving credit (credit limits). Consumers can improve their FICO® scores by paying off debt and lowering their utilization ratio. The closing of existing revolving accounts will typically adversely affect this ratio and therefore have a negative impact on the FICO® score.

15% — Length of Credit History – As a consumer’s credit history ages, assuming the consumer pays his or her bills, it can have a positive impact on the FICO® score.

10% — Types of Credit Used (installment, revolving, consumer finance) – Consumers can benefit by having a history of managing different types of credit.

10% — Recent search for credit and/or amount of credit obtained recently – Multiple credit inquiries for a consumer seeking to open new credit, such as credit cards, retail store accounts, and personal loans, can hurt an individual’s score. Applying for lots of new credit in a short period of time is also viewed as risky and can cause a drop in an individual’s score. However, individuals shopping for a mortgage or auto loan over a short period will likely not experience a decrease in their scores as a result of these types of inquiries.

(Source: http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/WhatsInYourScore.aspx)

Q 25.  How does a mortgage modification affect my FICO® score?

A FICO® credit scores are calculated from the information in consumer credit reports. Whether a loan modification affects the borrower’s FICO® score depends on whether and how the lender chooses to report the event to the credit bureau, as well as on the person’s overall credit profile. If a lender indicates to a credit bureau that the consumer has not made payments on a mortgage as originally agreed, that information on the consumer’s credit report could cause the consumer’s FICO® score to decrease or it could have little to no impact on the score.

(Source: http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/questions/Mortgage_Modification.aspx)

Q 26.  How does a bankruptcy affect my FICO® score?

A A bankruptcy is considered a very negative event regardless of the type. A bankruptcy is factored into your FICO® score until it is removed from your credit report.  As long as the bankruptcy is listed on your credit report, it will be factored into your score. If you are considering bankruptcy as an alternative to foreclosure, keep in mind that it may have a greater impact on your FICO® score.

Typically, you can expect bankruptcies to impact your FICO® score, from the date filed, as follows:

(1)  Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 bankruptcies up to 10 years.

(2)  Completed Chapter 13 bankruptcies up to 7 years.

These time periods refer to the public record item associated with filing for bankruptcy. All of the individual accounts included in the bankruptcy should be removed from your credit report after 7 years.

(Source: http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/Questions/Bankruptcy-Types.aspx)

If you plan to file a bankruptcy, here are some things you should do to make sure your creditors are accurately reporting the bankruptcy filing:

(1) Check your credit report to ensure that accounts that were not part of the bankruptcy filing are not being reported with a bankruptcy status.

(2) Make sure your bankruptcy is removed as soon as it is eligible to be “purged” from your credit report.

After a bankruptcy has been filed, the sooner you begin re-establishing credit in good standing, the sooner you can expect your FICO® score to rebound. A good practice is to obtain a secured credit card and continually make all of your payments on time. As time passes and the impact of the bankruptcy lessens, you might apply for a traditional credit card and also continually make all of your payments on time.

(Source: http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/questions/Bankruptcy-Reach.aspx)

Q 27.  How does a short sale, deed-in-lieu-of foreclosure. or a foreclosure affect my FICO® score?

A The alternatives to foreclosure, such as a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure or a short sale, aren’t any better as far as a FICO® score is concerned.

The common alternatives to foreclosure, such as short sales, and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure are all “not paid as agreed” accounts, and considered the same by your FICO® score. This is not to say that these may not be better options for you from a financial or tax perspective, just that they will be considered no better or worse for your FICO® score.

If you are considering bankruptcy as an alternative to foreclosure, that may have a greater impact on your FICO® score. While a foreclosure is a single account that you default on,  declaring bankruptcy has the opportunity to affect multiple accounts and therefore has  potential to have a greater negative impact on your FICO® score.

(Source: http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/Questions/foreclosure-alternatives-fico-score.aspx)

Q 28.  What won’t affect my FICO® score?

A The following information is not considered by the FICO® scoring formula:

. Your race, color, religion, national origin, sex, or marital status

. Your age

. Your salary, occupation, title, employer, date employed, or employment history

. Where you live

. Any interest rate being charged on a particular credit card or other account

. Certain types of inquiries (such as promotional, account review, insurance or employment-related inquiries)

. Credit counseling

. Any information not found in your credit report

. Any information that is not proven to be predictive of future credit performance

(Source: http://myfico.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/myfico.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=55)

Q 29.  Where can I get more information?

A For a credit missteps comparison (i.e., affect on credit scores after certain events), go to http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/questions/Credit_Problem_Comparison.aspx.

This legal article is just one of the many legal publications and services offered by C.A.R. to its members. For a complete listing of C.A.R.’s legal products and services, please visit car.org.

Readers who require specific advice should consult an attorney. C.A.R. members requiring legal assistance may contact C.A.R.’s Member Legal Hotline at (213) 739-8282, Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturday, 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.  C.A.R. members who are broker-owners, office managers, or Designated REALTORS® may contact the Member Legal Hotline at (213) 739-8350 to receive expedited service. Members may also submit online requests to speak with an attorney on the Member Legal Hotline by going to http://www.car.org/legal/legal-hotline-access/.  Written correspondence should be addressed to:

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Member Legal Services
525 South Virgil Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90020


The information contained herein is believed accurate as of August 4, 2010. It is intended to provide general answers to general questions and is not intended as a substitute for individual legal advice. Advice in specific situations may differ depending upon a wide variety of factors. Therefore, readers with specific legal questions should seek the advice of an attorney. Revised by Sonia M. Younglove, Esq.

Copyright© 2010 CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Permission is granted to C.A.R. members only to reprint and use this material for non-commercial purposes provided credit is given to the C.A.R.Legal Department. Other reproduction or use is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of the C.A.R. Legal Department. All rights reserved.




What Is The National Association Of Realtors (N.A.R.) Commercial Property Outlook?

September 1, 2010…1:50 am

NAR’s Updated Commercial Real Estate Report

Jump to Comments
Commercial Real Estate Sectors, hurt by weak job growth, are offering incentives in many areas that are conducive to business expansion, according to The National Association Of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, said fallout from the Recession continues to impact Commercial Real Estate. “Vacancy rates are beginning to level off in some sectors, but rent discounts and moderate levels of Landlord concessions are widespread,” he said. “this is very much a tenant’s market, which is quite favorable for businesses that are considering expansion. It’s also encouraging that there is a modest improvement in the sentiment of commercial real estate practitioners.”

The Society Of Industrial and Office Realtors , in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 600 local market experts, shows vacancy rates remain depressed, and subleasing space is high.

The SIOR Index, measuring 10 variables, rose 2.8 percentage points to 41.0 in the second quarter, but remains well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the Third consecutive quarterly improvement after nearly three years of decline: the last time the commercial market was in equilibrium at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.

Fifty-Seven percent of respondents expect improvements in the office and industrial sectors in the third quarter.

Commercial Real Estate Development remains stagnant in all regions with low investment activity: 88 percent of respondents said it is virtually nonexistent in their markets, but development acquisitions are beginning to grow in many area in what is described as a buyer’s market.

Looking at the overall market, vacancy rates will shift modestly in the coming year according to NAR’s latest Commercial real estate Outlook 2.

The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.

Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.

Office Markets

Vacancy rates in the Office sector, with high levels of available sublease space, are expected to increase from 16.7 percent in the second quarter of this year to 17.0 percent in the second quarter of 2010 and then ease later next year.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates in the second quarter were New York City, Honolulu, and Long Island, N.Y.,  with vacancies around the 9 to 11 percent range. Annual Office Rent should fall 2.7 percent this year and decline another 2.1 percent in 2011. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space, coming on the market as well as space in existing properties projected to be a negative 13.6 Million Square Feet this Year and then a positive 22.6 Million in 2011.

Industrial Markets

Industrial vacancy rates are likely to decline from 14.1 percent in the second quarter of 2010 to 13.7 percent in the second quarter of 2011, and then continue to ease modestly as the year progresses. The areas with the lowest Industrial vacancy rates in the second quarter were Los Angeles,  San Francisco and Kansas City, with vacancies ranging between 8 and 11 percent.

Annual Industrial Rent is estimated to drop 5.4 percent this year, and to decline another 4.7 percent in 2011. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 31.7 million square feet this year and a positive 157.2 million in 2011.

Retail Markets

Retail Vacancy rates should hold steady at 13.1 percent in both the second quarter of this year and in the second quarter of 2011, with a level pattern for most of next year Markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates in the second quarter include San Francisco, Honolulu and Miami, with vacancies of 7 to 8 percent.

Average Retail Rent is expected to decline 2.6 percent in 2010 and then flatten out, slipping 0.1 percent next year. Net Absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is forecast to be a negative 2.3 million square feet this year and then a positive 6.4 million in 2011.

Multifamily Markets

The Apartment Rental Market- Multi-Family Housing is benefiting from modestly higher demand.  Multi-family vacancy rates are likely to decline from 6.0 percent in the second quarter of this year to 5.6 percent in the second quarter of 2011.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates in the second quarter include San Jose, California: Pittsburgh: and Philadelphia, with vacancies of less than 4 percent.

With additions from new construction, average rent should slip 0.6 percent in 2010, and then hold even in 2011. Multi-family net absorption is expected to be 105, 200 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year, and another 138,000 in 2011.

The Commercial real Estate Outlook is published by NAR Research  Division for the Commercial Real Estate Community.  Thank you NAR!

Fire Side Chat- “Put the Petal to the Metal”

Fire Side Chat- Michael Simpson

Keller Williams Coastal Properties, Long Beach, CA.

August 30, 2010

Why Do Some Houses Sit While Other Houses Sell?

This is a great clip from Jay Papasan, thanks Jay for sharing!

Why Some Houses Sit While Other Houses Sell

Even in the hardest hit markets, there are still properties priced well enough and in good enough condition to interest buyers. Those houses attract offers and sell. Houses that aren’t priced and staged competitively sit. It’s not complicated. It’s really that simple.

For your house to stand out from the crowd, you’ll have to listen to what buyers are telling you and make sure your house is priced well enough and in good enough condition to stand out from the competition. Here’s a quick video explaining how it works. Good luck!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUJeJYHj-cE&feature=player_embedded#!

Fire Side Chat 8/16/10 “Models”

In the Loop with Lorri “The Crossover Tour”

In the Loop with Lorri

“Lorri Brines our Team Leader out in the field this past Tuesday on…

“The Crossover Tour”



FREE Short Sales Panel!! RSVP to Reserve a seat!

KWCP is hosting an informative Panel all on Short Sales!!!

Check it out!

Photobucket

Fire Side Chat w/ Michael “Mini Mastermind” 8/9/10

What Housing Markets Are Predicted To Have The Strongest Growth In The Next 4 Years?

I thought this was a great article, my hometown (Bend Oregon) is #2 on the list, great time to buy!

Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014

By Venessa Wong, Bloomberg Businessweek
Aug 4, 2010
Provided by:

Where will prices rebound most by state?

A housing market rebound seems tenuous following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, and consumer confidence remains weak due to lackluster employment, but David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, says the bottom is near. Home prices in the U.S. have declined 29.5 percent over the past four years, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. Stiff says prices should form a trough early next year, when median prices will be down an estimated 32.9 percent from the 2006 peak.

More from Bloomberg Businessweek

» Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014

» America’s Strongest Job Markets

» Most Improved U.S. Housing Markets 2010

By early 2014, they will have climbed about 7.2 percent from 2010 levels, according to the indexes. Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com base the housing forecast on factors that include income growth, demographic trends, unemployment rates, foreclosure rates, and construction costs. Of 384 places surveyed, the Bremerton-Silverdale area in Washington State had the highest four-year growth forecast, with prices expected to increase 44.7 percent from 2010 to 2014. Other leading growth markets: Bend, Ore., where prices are expected to jump 33.6 percent by 2014, and Detroit, with a 33.1 percent forecast. Markets with the weakest projections: Miami and Naples in Florida and Atlantic City, N.J., where prices are expected to continue to fall over the next four years.

Top 10 Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014

Washington
Ferry heads toward Bremerton, Wash. (AP)

1. Washington

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Bremerton-Silverdale metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 44.7 percent
Current median price: $245,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $69,900
Population: 240,860

The Bremerton-Silverdale area, on Puget Sound’s Kitsap Peninsula, has the highest growth forecast of all MSAs in the country, with prices expected to jump 44.7 percent by 2014, according to Fiserv. Cathy Doney, general manger for Reid Real Estate in Silverdale, says the waterfront community has benefited from government employment, which has helped sustain the job market, and attracted buyers looking to live close to Seattle at a lower cost. Washington’s second-strongest market is Tacoma, with a growth rate expected to be 33.1 percent. Prices in the Seattle area are expected to grow 25.5 percent by 2014.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: Case-Shiller

Bend, Oregon
Bend, Oregon (Getty Images)

2. Oregon

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Bend metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 33.6 percent
Current median price: $144,533*
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q1
Median family income: $58,200
Population: 158,630

The area around Bend area, in central Oregon’s high desert by the Cascade Mountains, has the second-highest four-year growth forecast, 33.6 percent, after Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. Bend draws home buyers and visitors with its wealth of outdoor recreational opportunities, but its prices have dropped about 40 percent since hitting a peak in late 2006. Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com now expect a rapid recovery starting next year. Greg Broderick, a real estate broker in Bend, says prices have overcorrected and buyers are seeing good value in the market. Homes priced the low hundred-thousand-dollar range “are being snapped up at a furious pace,” he says. Still, the area must deal with a higher-than-average unemployment rate, which the BLS says was 13.4 percent in June.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA

Detroit, Michigan
Detroit, Michigan (Getty Images)

3. Michigan

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 33.1 percent
Current median price: $51,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q2
Median family income: $54,400
Population: 1,925,850

Since reaching a peak in 2006, home prices in the Detroit area have fallen 60.5 percent, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. As homes have become more affordable—the median home price in Detroit is lower than median family income—demand is expected to pick up. Prices are forecast to jump 33.1 percent over the next four years. George Moma, a broker with Century 21 Dupont Realtors, says the growing prevalence of short sales over foreclosures will help drive up the median price in the Detroit metro area. He adds that the area is attracting interest among international investors from the U.K., Dubai, Moscow, India, Ireland, and France.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: Case-Shiller

Napa, California
Napa, California (Getty Images)

4. California

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Napa metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 31.7 percent
Current median price: $355,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q4
Median family income: $79,600
Population: 134,650

Prices in the Napa area have dropped an enormous 44.6 percent since peaking in early 2006, according to first-quarter 2010 data from Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com. Despite the drop, home prices are expected to rebound quickly. According to an article in the St. Helena Star, Napa County is vulnerable to economic and real estate market fluctuations, but the impact is mitigated by managed growth and the county’s natural and agricultural resources. The unemployment rate in the Napa area fell to 9.3 percent in June, from 11.1 percent in January, according to the BLS.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: Case-Shiller

Washington
Carson City, Nevada
(Convention and Vistor’s Bureau)

5. Nevada

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Carson City metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 31.6 percent
Current median price: $141,524*
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q2
Median family income: $63,100
Population: 55,180

By the second quarter of 2011, prices in the Carson City area are expected to have fallen 34.4 percent from peak levels, according to the Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com. Recovery will depend on job creation, as the unemployment rate was 13.4 percent in June, according to the BLS. While expectations for near-term economic growth have diminished recently and competition for jobs is extremely high, opportunities exist, even in a declining labor market, according to Nevada’s Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation Dept.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA
* Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, April 2010

Panama City, Florida
Panama City Beach, Florida (Getty Images)

6. Florida

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 26.9 percent
Current median price: $158,669*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q3
Median family income: $53,800
Population: 164,770

Home prices in the Panama City area fell about 27 percent after hitting a peak in 2006, according to the FHFA home price index. Jennifer Mackay, an agent at Keller Williams Success Realty in Panama City, says the market was stabilizing earlier this year, but the BP oil spill led some buyers to pull out and sent the rental market into a tailspin. Despite the area’s large number of foreclosures (1.93 percent in the first half, according to RealtyTrac), Mackay says the new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, which opened in May, should help stimulate local business. “I see our economy doing better than others over the course of the next year,” she says. The area’s unemployment rate reached 12.1 percent in January and dropped to 9.3 percent in June, according to BLS data.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA

Flagstaff, Arizona
Flagstaff, Arizona (Getty Images)

7. Arizona

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Flagstaff metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 26 percent
Current median price: $278,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q3
Median family income: $56,700
Population: 129,850

Although Arizona has been one of the states hit hardest by the housing downturn, sales activity in the Flagstaff area, home to Northern Arizona University and Flagstaff Medical Center, has picked up since the start of the year, due in part to the home buyer tax credit. Flagstaff-based broker Ann Heitland says prices still may drop in the near term, but the decrease will be limited by shrinking inventory, as there has been a lack of new construction in the area. She adds that because more than one-fifth of the Flagstaff market is second homes, demand from second-home buyers from Phoenix will also affect the recovery.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: Case-Shiller

Santa Fe, New Mexico
Santa Fe, New Mexico (Getty Images)

8. New Mexico

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Santa Fe metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 25.8 percent
Current median price: $197,601*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q3
Median family income: $64,300
Population: 147,530

Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com expect prices in Santa Fe to drop a total of 13.4 percent from their height in 2007. Lois Sury, president of the Santa Fe Association of Realtors, states in a release that median prices fell during the second quarter, but homes are moving across all price ranges. Sales in the city and county of Santa Fe rose 40 percent during the second quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to the association.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA
* Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, April 2010

Wyoming
Wyoming (Getty Images)

9. Wyoming

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Cheyenne metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 23.7 percent
Current median price: $106,602*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $62,600
Population: 88,850

The Cheyenne metro area, which includes Laramie County, has been a fairly stable market, with home prices estimated to drop only 2.6 percent from peak to trough. Home prices increased in June, and the average time on the market decreased, according to the Cheyenne Board of Realtors. The metro area had a 7 percent unemployment rate in June, according to the BLS.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA
* Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, April 2010

Alaska
Anchorage, Alaska (Getty Images)

10. Alaska

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Anchorage metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 20 percent
Current median price: $177,699*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $77,700
Population: 374,550

The housing market in Anchorage has been stable: The estimated peak-to-trough price drop was only 2.1 percent, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. Home sales, aided by the first-time home buyers’ tax credit earlier this year, as well as the fact that the area is home to many people who work in the resilient energy sector, are projected to stay strong as buyers take advantage of lower prices and low mortgage rates. According to Housingpredictor.com, “the state is seeing few foreclosures and is already showing signs of recovering.”

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA
* Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, April 2010

Click here to see the strongest markets in each state.

Check out our Fan Page

http://www.Facebook.com/SocalCommercial

We hope you will “like us”, tell your friends and let us know what you think!

Thank-you for your time, sincerely Michael Simpson

 

Submit your linkClose